📦  Sourcing & Procurement Teams

Supply Chain Tariff Risk

Early warning of tariff pressure before it hits sourcing costs — country exposure, HS-chapter granularity, and per-event sector impact.

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PEPIndex gives supply-chain strategy teams a daily early-warning signal for tariff pressure — before announced rates become applied costs. Country-level exposure, HS-chapter granularity, and sector-level price impact are all available via the API.

See it live on the PEPIndex dashboard Live applied rates, per-event sector impact, and the current composite — updated every 6 hours. Open the live index →

The problem: announced rates are not applied rates

When a 145% tariff is announced on Chinese imports, procurement teams face a difficult question: will this rate actually apply to your product categories, your supplier countries, and your import timeline? Historical data shows the answer is often "not exactly."

The statutory-vs-applied gap — the difference between the headline tariff rate and the rate actually collected at the border — is the quantity PEPIndex measures on every trade event. It varies enormously by action: economy-wide it is modest (Cavallo et al. measure 27.7% statutory against 23.8% applied across their sample), but on a headline action it can exceed 100 points — the tracked Liberation Day benchmark announced 145% on China and settled at 28.3% applied. PEPIndex tracks this gap per event using live USITC DataWeb data, so sourcing teams can model actual cost exposure rather than worst-case scenario rates.

What PEPIndex provides for supply-chain teams

SignalDataUpdate cadence
Country tariff exposure Applied rates at HS-2 chapter level for 15 countries: CN, MX, CA, JP, KR, VN, TW, DE, GB, FR, IT, BR, IN, TH, TR Monthly (USITC DataWeb)
Per-event sector impact COICOP-3 sector price impact for each tariff event — Household Furnishings, Apparel, Food, Industrial, etc. Every 6 hours (pipeline)
Statutory vs. applied gap Announced rate minus actually-applied rate per event, in percentage points Monthly (USITC)
Policy pressure score Daily PEPI composite (0–100) — higher = more reversal/exemption pressure in the current environment Every 6 hours
Federal Register linkage EOs, proclamations, memoranda, and USTR notices linked to each tariff event, with effective dates Daily (Federal Register API)

Key API endpoints for supply-chain use cases

GET/api/v1/tariff-ratesSTANDARD
Applied rates by country, latest snapshot
GET/api/v1/tariff-rates/detail?country=CNSTANDARD
Per-HS-2 chapter rates for a specific country
GET/api/v1/events/{id}/sector-impactSTANDARD
COICOP-3 sector price impact for a tariff event
GET/api/v1/events/{id}/economic-impactPREMIUM
Full tariff gap, CPI contribution, consumer incidence
GET/api/v1/indexFREE
Daily composite PEPI score

Example: monitoring China HS-chapter exposure

Worked example

A sourcing team tracking China import exposure can pull /api/v1/tariff-rates/detail?country=CN to get the current applied rate at each HS-2 chapter. Combined with /api/v1/events filtered to domain=trade&status=monitoring, they can identify which active threats might affect their product categories before the next procurement cycle.

The statutory_applied_gap field on each event shows, in percentage points, how much of the announced tariff has been reversed through exemptions and carve-outs — the critical input to landed-cost modeling.

Integration patterns

Get API access

Standard tier includes tariff rates, events, sector impact, and economic indicators.

View all endpoints →