Tariff Policy Market Risk

The PEPI score as a policy risk factor

The composite PEPI score (0–100) measures the current level of policy pressure reversal in the market environment. A rising score signals increasing threat-reversal activity — the conditions that historically produce market whipsaws (overreaction to threats, relief rally on reversal). A falling score signals follow-through or reduced active pressure. Two figures are published: the settled index (/api/v1/index, resolved events only — the stable series for backtests) and the live index (index.live_value in the snapshot), which adds pressure from forward-looking threats that are past their deadline — the real-time read on pending risk.

Unlike news sentiment indices, PEPI scores outcomes against the public record — Federal Register documents, USITC applied tariff rates, court rulings and congressional actions, with independent reporting where no official record settles an outcome — under a fixed, versioned methodology. Language models classify statements into events and every outcome carries its evidence source; price and market series measure economic impact but do not move the behavioral score.

TACO trade return analysis

The recurring pattern underlying the TACO Index — "threat, market reaction, reversal, relief rally" — produces a measurable market return. For each resolved trade-domain event, PEPI tracks:

• Market threat delta: S&P 500 % change on the threat announcement day
• Market outcome delta: S&P 500 % change on the outcome/reversal day
• TACO trade return: theoretical return from a long position entered on threat day and exited at outcome, annualized
• Hold days: span from threat date to outcome date for that event — the cross-event average is published live in /api/v1/stats as avg_days_to_reversal

These fields are available via GET /api/v1/events/{id}/taco-trade (Premium) and in aggregate via GET /api/v1/economic-stats (Standard).

Market data available per event

Key API endpoints for market risk analysis

Integration with quant workflows

• 1

  Factor model input: Use daily composite_index from /api/v1/index/history as a trade-policy risk factor in cross-sectional models.

• 2

  Event study: Pull /api/v1/events/{id}/market-impact for all resolved trade events to study S&P 500 and sector cumulative returns around announcement and outcome dates.

• 3

  Signal calibration: statutory_applied_gap measures the market-relevant portion of each tariff threat that was not followed through — a lead indicator of relief-rally magnitude.

• 4

  Snowflake: Start with the free Marketplace sample (live index + event teasers + benchmark economics); bulk historical market-impact and event analysis runs on the REST API or a private enterprise data share.