Tariff Policy Market Risk

PEPIndex for Macro & Quantitative Analysts

The PEPI score as a policy risk factor

The composite PEPI score (0–100) measures the current level of policy pressure reversal in the market environment. A rising score signals increasing threat-reversal activity — the conditions that historically produce market whipsaws (overreaction to threats, relief rally on reversal). A falling score signals follow-through or reduced active pressure.

Unlike news sentiment indices or verbal analysis, PEPI is scored deterministically: every dimension is computed from public government data (USITC applied rates, Federal Register documents, BLS/FRED economic series) with documented weights and formulas.

TACO trade return analysis

The recurring pattern underlying the TACO Index — "threat, market reaction, reversal, relief rally" — produces a measurable market return. For each resolved trade-domain event, PEPI tracks:

• Market threat delta: S&P 500 % change on the threat announcement day
• Market outcome delta: S&P 500 % change on the outcome/reversal day
• TACO trade return: theoretical return from a long position entered on threat day and exited at outcome, annualized
• Hold days: median time from threat to resolution (~23 days)

These fields are available via GET /api/v1/events/{id}/taco-trade (Premium) and in aggregate via GET /api/v1/economic-stats (Standard).

Market data available per event

Key API endpoints for market risk analysis

• GET /api/v1/index/history — Daily composite + domain sub-indices time series (Standard)
• GET /api/v1/events/{id}/market-impact — SPY, VIX, XLP, XLI, XLY, EEM around threat/outcome dates (Premium)
• GET /api/v1/events/{id}/taco-trade — Threat price, low price, outcome price, hold days, annualized return (Premium)
• GET /api/v1/economic-indicators — BLS/FRED time series (CPI, PPI, yields, dollar index) (Standard)
• GET /api/v1/economic-stats — Aggregate TACO trade return, avg tariff gap, CPI contribution (Standard)
• GET /api/v1/index — Current composite score (Free)

Integration with quant workflows

• Factor model input: Use daily composite_index from /api/v1/index/history as a trade-policy risk factor in cross-sectional models.
• Event study: Pull /api/v1/events/{id}/market-impact for all resolved trade events to study SPY/sector cumulative returns around announcement and outcome dates.
• Signal calibration: statutory_applied_gap measures the market-relevant portion of each tariff threat that was not followed through — a lead indicator of relief-rally magnitude.
• Snowflake: Query market_impact and taco_events directly from Snowflake for bulk historical analysis.